Forbes post, “WEP Follow-Up: The Social Security Government Pension Offset Is Also Entirely Reasonable”

Originally published at Forbes.com on February 14, 2020.

 

Yesterday I wrote that various candidates’ promises to eliminate the Windfall Elimination Provision were, most charitably, misguided, but, more likely, simply pandering, because the WEP is an entirely appropriate provision to prevent certain teachers from “double-dipping” in their retirement benefits. And in response, some commenters (on twitter and my personal website) suggested that while the WEP reductions seemed fair, the GPO, or Government Pension Offset, was unreasonable.

In response, here’s a follow-up: yes, the GPO is also reasonable and prevents double-dipping. But to explain that, I have to address what seems like a wholly different topic first, so be patient!

Among the various promises that the Democratic presidential candidates such as Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are making is this: they will institute a system of “caregiver credits.” Buttigieg’s white paper describes his proposal as follows:

“ Those caring full-time for children or for a disabled or elderly family member do not currently receive credit toward Social Security benefits—disproportionately affecting women. Under Pete’s plan, Social Security will finally recognize the undeniable: caregiving is work. Caregivers of a child, elderly, or disabled dependent will be awarded credit toward Social Security benefits as if they earned the median earnings of a full-time, year-round worker outside the home, with no limits on the number of years for which caregivers can claim the credit.”

Are caregiver credits a good idea? Maybe, if implemented judiciously, and I’m not sure the Buttigieg proposal hits the mark, without duration limits and with a structure that boosts benefits for women out of the workforce up to the median level, that is, above, by definition, half of the workforce. There are a variety of ways to provide benefit boosts to mothers: income-splitting credits credit to stay-at-home mothers half their husbands’ income; Canada reduces the number of years included in the averaging period; Switzerland and France increase benefits for parents regardless of their work choices; and, yes, Germany and Austria provide caregiver credits, with, in Germany for example, median-income credit given to caregivers of under-3s, a boost to part-time workers juggling work with caregiving, and partial credits for parents of under-10s.

And, as it turns out, the United States already has a form of caregiver credits; it’s just that it’s a simplistic and old-fashioned system that’s not perceived that way. In part, Social Security uses only 35 years of averaging to reflect some absences from the workforce over one’s adult years. But in addition, a woman who has been out of the workforce for a significant length of time is provided a special form of minimum benefit, in the form of 50% of the benefit earned by her husband. (Yes, the Social Security website uses confusing wording, with a subject header “Benefits For Your Spouse” to describe benefits individuals may be eligible for as a spouse, but so be it.) Of course, this doesn’t benefit out-of-the-workforce parents who aren’t married, or other sorts of caregivers, but at the time when Social Security was designed, this sort of minimum benefit made sense.

Again, with respect to benefits for surviving spouses of deceased Social Security participants, the wording of the website suggests that workers earn these benefits for their spouses, and even calls them a form of “life insurance.” But, again, once the surviving spouse reaches retirement age, the deceased spouse’s benefit serves as a minimum benefit to what she or he has earned in her own right.

The bottom line is that in an employer-benefits based system, workers earn benefits for themselves and their families. They earn health insurances for family coverage. They earn life insurance benefits that pay out to designated beneficiaries in case of their death. And if their employer provides pension benefits, those benefits provide the opportunity to select a “joint and survivor” form in which their spouse receives a specified portion of the benefit after their death — and the latter is true regardless of what income that spouse might have, because it’s a benefit earned by the deceased spouse.

But Social Security isn’t an employer benefit. It’s Social Insurance. And the rules are different. Regardless of how they may be described, the reality is that these are benefits accruing to the recipients themselves, even if they are “earned” by means of being married to an earner. A non-working mother truly receives her own Social Security benefit even if based on her husband’s income record; it is not the case that he receives an extra benefit because he has a dependent wife, and it is not the case that he has a government-provided life insurance policy to the benefit of his wife.

And that gets us, finally, to the Government Pension Offset.

This offset applies to workers in federal, state, or local government who have opted out of participating in our nationwide social insurance system, or whose employer has chosen to do so.

The fundamental calculation is this: the amount of benefit an individual would have been due as a spouse or surviving spouse minimum benefit, is reduced by two-thirds of the value of “opt-out” government pension. If an individual would have been eligible for a $500 minimum benefit as the spouse of a Social Security-covered worker, but had worked for a state pension system that opts out of Social Security and earned a $600 pension, then two-thirds, or $400, would be subtracted from the minimum-benefit as-a-spouse, for a net of $100. (The example comes directly from Social Security.)

The principle is entirely fair: the minimum-benefit-as-a-spouse should only ever be a minimum, not an add-on. To get both the minimum benefit and the full own-benefit is double dipping every bit as much as if this were the case by stacking two Social Security benefits together.

Now, at the same time, in a perfect world, the math would be different.

After all, a state or local pension benefit is a Social Security-replacement benefit and an employer supplemental benefit all wrapped into one. A more precisely-fair calculation would split the state or local pension into two numbers: the portion that replaces Social Security, and the portion that supplements it in the same way as private-sector pensions do. Then only the first of these would be compared to the benefit-as-a-spouse to identify whether Social Security should pay out a minimum benefit.

Now, whether Social Security has the data available to do the math, I can’t say. And even if so, one could make the case that an individual who has participated in an alternative pension system for their career has made a choice to opt out of Social Security in a way that’s not true of a non-earner or low-earner. And for middle/upper income full-career workers and for their employers, opting out is a win, financially, because they opt out of subsidizing the poor with a bend-point formula in favor of earning benefits at a flat rate.

And, again, the solution to this unhappiness is simple (and I cannot stress this enough): those 15 states whose employees do not participate in Social Security should be moved into the system like the rest of us. Why those states — which include notoriously-poorly funded California and Illinois — don’t do so is plain: it would increase their costs and force them to pay up-front in the form of FICA contributions.

(And, incidentally, the federal government itself made the switch back in 1984, at which point newly-hired workers as well as those who chose to make the switch, began to be covered by Social Security.)

 

December 2024 Author’s note: the terms of my affiliation with Forbes enable me to republish materials on other sites, so I am updating my personal website by duplicating a selected portion of my Forbes writing here.

Forbes post, “What If We Stopped Worrying About The Social Security Trust Fund?”

Originally published at Forbes.com on June 11, 2019.

 

Readers, I’ll start with a reminder:

I believe that Social Security doesn’t need just a little bit of renovation, taking out the old wallpaper and replacing the carpet with hardwood, but needs a whole-house gutting, in which we swap out, for future accruals, the current clunky bendpoint-based formula for a flat anti-poverty benefit paired with a mandatory account-based funded system on second-tranche income.  (Democrats are already proposing, via the “Social Security 2100 Act,” a much-increased minimum benefit, and various states are implementing state-sponsored mandatory auto-enrollment IRA programs, but I am convinced that the only way to implement a reform that will have widespread bipartisan support is by incorporating a funded system, with smoothing and pooling, into the Social Security system in place of the current structure, for middle-income pay-replacement.)

I acknowledge, however, that, to date, I have succeeded in persuading, near as I can tell, 0% of Congress.

That being said, so long as our imagination is limited to new coats of paint, I’m increasingly inclined to believe that we should simply discard the idea of caring about the end point of the existing Trust Fund.

If, on the one hand, life and health expectancy has increased such that it’s reasonable and appropriate to increase the retirement age, then we should do so regardless of what other decisions are made.  (My personal preference would be to legislate a method for adjusting the retirement age on a regular basis at that age at which a fixed percentage of workers, say, 1/4 or 1/3 of the group, would otherwise need to retire for disability/health reasons.)

If, on the other hand, the consensus is that we need some combination of tax hikes and earnings-cap adjustments, and if at the same time, there’s a majority belief that tax revenue needs to be boosted in any case, why do we need to play games with a “Trust Fund”?  Why not simply adjust taxes to the level needed to remedy deficits and fund whatever other spending the majority wants, in ways that are sustainable in the long term but recognize that demographic challenges will grow over time?  For that matter, why, if we want a benefit formula in which the wealthy subsidize the poor, rather than a “pay your own way” contribution, why should we limit taxes to wage income?

And, again, recall that of far greater significance than the Trust Fund is the old-age dependency ratio; back a year ago I referred readers to a Brookings statistics that total federal spending on the elderly is projected to increase from today’s 20.5% of GDP to 29.4% of GDP in 2046 — not 29.4% of government spending but of the total economic output.   How we cope with this aging future matters more than an arbitrary Trust Fund Depletion Date.

Consider the Disability Trust Fund.  In the 2016 Trustee’s report, this fund was projected to be depleted as soon as 2023.  In 2017, that number moved to 2028, in 2018, to 2032, and in the most current report to 2052.  Is Social Security Disability Insurance “fixed,” then?  No, of course not.  The program has widely-acknowledged problems, as many genuinely disabled Americans find themselves obliged to hire lawyers (and pay their contingency fees) in order to navigate the system, and others succeed in collecting benefits despite a genuine ability to work; hence, this stretching out of the fund depletion date is the result not of American’s improved health so much as the improved economy keeping more people in the workforce who would otherwise be deemed unable to work.  Other acknowledged shortcomings of the system include the lack of partial disablement structure to keep Americans in the workforce if they are able to work on a partial basis, and an insufficient return-to-work program.  (See, for instance, “16 Reforms to Improve the Solvency and Integrity of Social Security Disability Insurance,” a report at the Heritage Foundation or “Disability insurance: A crisis ends, but problems persist,” at the Brookings Institute, for recent commentary.)  For that matter, a report in yesterday’s Washington Post about a proposed disability change, in which blue-collar workers who are not proficient in English would no longer qualify for disability on the principle that they can’t transition to a desk job, signals a fundamental flaw in a system of all-or-nothing, which leaves no room for temporary benefits while an individual leans a new occupation, be that skills for a desk job, or English language instruction.

And none of these issues have anything to do with the depletion of the Trust Fund — but have we so conditioned ourselves to think of the depletion date as the target that we can’t think sensibly about more fundamental reform?  Certainly, the drumbeat of “we have to reform Social Security Disability” has diminished quite considerably as that date was moved further and further into the future.

And the same is true of “regular” Social Security, that is, the Old Age and Survivors’ program.  Yes, we must craft a benefit design and funding structure that is sustainable in the long term, and which takes into account anticipated life and health-expectancy improvements and expected changes in the long-term in fertility rates, economic development, and the like.  But to take as our marker the Trust Fund depletion date, or set as our objective replenishing the Fund?  Let’s not.

 

December 2024 Author’s note: the terms of my affiliation with Forbes enable me to republish materials on other sites, so I am updating my personal website by duplicating a selected portion of my Forbes writing here.

Forbes post, “How To ‘Scrap The Cap’ The Right Way”

Originally published at Forbes.com on February 13, 2019.

 

It is, so Twitter tells me, “Scrap the Cap Day” — the day when Social Security expansion activists are out in force promoting the idea that, because someone earning a million dollars in wage income would hit the Social Security ceiling today, it’s a clear proof that we need to eliminate the ceiling itself.  The Center for American Progress chose today to issue a report on the topic and Senator Bernie Sanders chose today to unveil his Social Security legislation, which, as described by CNN, boosts benefits by means of an additional 12.4% payroll tax on earned income above $250,000 as well as a 6.2% tax on investment income for singles with total income above $200,000, or $250,000 for couples, in the same fashion as the existing Medicare surtax.

(This legislation is further described as a reintroduction of his 2017 bill, which sets a minimum benefit after 30 years of eligible employment at 125% of the single-person poverty measure, or $31,225 for a two-person household, indexed at national wage increases; indexes Social Security by the CPI – E, a form of CPI specifically reflecting the spending of the elderly; but does not make any provision for the indexing of the thresholds for the payroll or Medicare surtax.)

Now, this isn’t new, and I’ve addressed the issue in an article last year, but at the risk of repeating myself, sure, we can “Scrap the Cap.”  But if we do, we need to be honest about it.

First, we need to acknowledge that Social Security would no longer be a Social Insurance program as conventionally understood.  Readers of that prior article will recall that we are already outside the norm in terms of the way countries fund their pension systems, at least with respect to systems which resemble ours in terms of providing accruals based on pay and work history.  Their ceilings are much lower — to take one example, in Canada, the ceiling is CAD 57,400 (about USD 43,000).

Now, it does appear that the conventional wisdom that people won’t accept Social Security as a “welfare program” may no longer be true — after all, there is considerable interest in the federal government providing all manner of services for residents, from medical care to free child care and tuitionless-universities.  But without getting bogged down in that debate, we need to at least acknowledge what’s on the table.

Second, if we’re to abandon the Social Security ceiling, then there’s really no reason to tie Social Security taxes to specifically earned income or a payroll tax.  In that event, it’s far more practical to simply increase income tax rates the requisite amount and collect the tax revenues along with all other taxes.  (Again, I raised the issue with respect to Medicare earlier as well.)

And, finally, once we abandon the connection between earnings and Social Security that’s inherent in the elimination of the Social Security ceiling and the taxation of investment income, and once we demand that the upper middle class and wealthy “pay their fair share” — that is, pay more in than they get out in benefits — then the entire formula is due for a re-think, as, again, the most honest way to deliver benefits in such a system is with a flat dollar amount, whether that’s means-tested and phased-out with income (Australia), part of a two-element system alongside a wage-based system (Canada), or a simple flat benefit for everyone (the Netherlands).  And the size of such a benefit will have to be determined, not in isolation, but by evaluating the system’s cost and retiree living standards alongside the needs of families with children, the disabled, and the poor.

 

December 2024 Author’s note: the terms of my affiliation with Forbes enable me to republish materials on other sites, so I am updating my personal website by duplicating a selected portion of my Forbes writing here.

Forbes post, “It’s Time To Go Big On Social Security Reform”

Originally published at Forbes.com on February 7, 2019.

 

Is retirement back on the agenda?

Two weeks ago, Rep. John Larson reintroduced his Social Security 2100 Act (which I discussed previously), with great hopes that under a Democratic-controlled House, the bill would progress forward in a way that hadn’t happened in prior years.

And yesterday there were not just one but two hearings in Congress about retirement, the first at the Ways and Means Committee, on the topic of “improving retirement security for America’s workers,” and the second at the U.S. Senate Special Committee on Aging, ““Financial Security in Retirement: Innovations and Best Practices to Promote Savings.”  At the (livestreamed) Ways and Means hearing, the discussion was wide-ranging, including Social Security itself, private savings, the impact of the so-called “gig economy,” multi-employer plans, and more, and representatives from both sides of the aisle affirmed their desire to deal with the multiple issues at play.

But here’s the challenge.

On the one hand, there are calls to increase the extent of Social Security benefit provision; Larson’s bill, for example, increases Social Security benefits for all participants by a flat 2%, above and beyond other changes.  Other proposals call for increases in benefits for survivors, the addition of caregiving credits, and the like.

On the other hand, Andrew Biggs of the American Enterprise Institute observed, both in his written testimony and in person, increases in pension benefits for the middle class are correlated with decreases in personal savings, rather than an overall increase in retirement provision.

Diane Oakley’s testimony as the Executive Director of the National Institute on Retirement Security pointed to low levels of retirement savings among Millennials.  Biggs responded that (paraphrased), it’s simply not true that 100% of the population needs to save for retirement 100% of the time, because low-income folk see good income-replacement levels from Social Security and Millennials choosing to repay student loans might be making reasonable decisions relative to their financial situation.  (Incidentally, the data on the level of retirement savings turns out to be murky, with different sources producing different answers.)

And many of the Congressmen and witnesses alike invoked the defined benefit plans of the past without due recognition that this system only benefitted those who were lucky enough to work a full career at a single, large employer, and that it was an unsustainable system in any event.

What’s the solution?  We need to Go Big in Social Security reform.  These discussions repeatedly reveal the design flaws of Social Security itself.  In any other situation, we wouldn’t hesitate to say that an 84-year old system could be overhauled.  FDR was not a saint who created a system under divine inspiration, nor a genius whose insights our intelligence is too limited to surpass.

Too many pundits and politicians want Social Security to accomplish two goals:  to keep the elderly out of poverty, and to ensure that middle-class retirees can maintain their standard of living.

We are already moving towards a recognition that making savings easier is a key ingredient in solutions to the latter problem.  In fact, one of the witnesses was a small business owner, Luke Huffstutter, who was one of the first participants in OregonSaves and was enthusiastic about its success in helping his employees save.  While I’ve shared my concerns with these programs in the past, the overall objective is sound:  to increase the degree to which workers save for retirement even if their employer doesn’t provide access to retirement savings.  There are efforts, too, through defined contribution multiple employer plans, to reduce employers’ administrative costs to increase the feasibility of plan offerings.  What’s missing are innovations to help American workers understand how much they need to save, given their individual situations, and solutions to help them spend down their money so as to avoid either outliving their assets or over-reducing their standard of living in an effort to stretch their savings unnecessarily much.

All too often, and even at the hearing itself, we still hear that employers are not meeting their responsibility to provide for their share of their workers’ retirement benefits.  But we need to abandon the idea of the three-legged stool once and for all, or at least discard the notion that Social Security, employer, and personal savings income sources are interchangeable stool-legs.

The economic system of the 1930s no longer exists.  And Social Security’s design, and its “stool” concept, is a relic of a time when industrial America was imagined simply to continue to grow, when employers and the Social Security Administration alike would benefit from the same literal pyramid effect of high birth rates and comparatively low post-retirement life expectancy, when individual employers would likewise only continue to grow their workforce, once the temporary economic conditions of the Depression were behind us.   (Incidentally, many low-fertility countries, such as Germany, are now forecast to have inverted-pyramid population distributions, and the U.S. may follow suit depending on immigration levels.)

Instead, we need to refocus Social Security on the first of these objectives, ensuring retirees are protected from poverty, and, to reach that goal, it would be an entirely fair trade-off to reduce Social Security provision for middle-class income and above, in order to ensure that Social Security meets its objective of keeping American elderly out of poverty/near-poverty.  That might be through a simple flat-dollar benefit for everyone, or a means-tested benefit that phases out at higher retirement income levels, or a hybrid benefit.

Then we can work out the best means of ensuring middle-class Americans are able to save for retirement and are able to spend-down their savings in retirement appropriately.

Only in this way can we move past the same old, tired debates about benefit cuts vs. tax hikes and, increasingly benefit increases, debates that never make progress because the terms of the debate are so ossified.

(And, yes, if this sounds familiar, this is indeed, in broad outlines, my own pet Social Security reform proposal.)

 

 

December 2024 Author’s note: the terms of my affiliation with Forbes enable me to republish materials on other sites, so I am updating my personal website by duplicating a selected portion of my Forbes writing here.